Suncor TSX - trùm dầu cát

 

1.  March 03, 2021:

• Feb 22, resistance breakout > it becomes new support at 24.82

• Mar 03, candle looks like a gravestone doji - a bearish pattern that suggests a reversal followed by a downtrend in the price action. A gravestone pattern can be used as a sign to take profits on a bullish position or enter a bearish trade 

> Mar 04, OPEC meeting. downward trend is coming?

> It may be the time to take profits. 

2.  March 04, 2021:

• Saudi Arabia extends the additional voluntary adjustments of 1 mb/d for the month of April 2021. 
• The exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively, due to continued seasonal consumption patterns.

> Oil will keep increasing till April, 2021

> Good news from OPEC+ meeting pushed the price of Suncor higher. Buy more 150 stocks at the beginning of today.

> Price reached resistant 27.4, so a lot of sellers cut profit + US market decrease > push the increase from +5% to +2%. However, with all this good news, it is likely to reach 29 on next Tuesday. 

> If price increase tmr, new resistance = 29.3, new support = 26.8. 

> Cut profit = 29.5? Revert trend + go below 25 = sell

3. Mar 05, 2021:

> Price soared to 27.6 at the beginning. Upper Bollinger of 1m/3m/6m = 28.10 + Stochastic and RSI are overbought, then maybe many day traders will cut profit at 28.16. Also, Suncor price usually decreases at the latter half of a session because it follows the trend of the whole US/CA market

>> Sold 150 stocks at 28.10. wait to buy again at 27.6. (practice day trade)

 >>> Although price go up to 28.3, but it only stay there for 5mins then go down and stay around 28.15-28.05-27.75 > sell at 28.10 is not too bad but should have wait at least 20min after the beginning to set the sell price.

>> Bought 150 stocks at 27.6

 Week 9 Summary + Plan for Week 10:

> OPEC meeting with extended oil reduction till May

>> Crude oil price is still in the strong uptrend. It may increase to 70$ in Week 10.

>> Strong support = 65$, Resistance = 76$

> Suncor price chart is in good pattern (Cup with Handle > Bullish).

>> Price will increase to 30$ in Week 10.

>> 30.5$ is a strong resistance (2020: Mar 08, June 07, MA100)

    + Stochastics will be overbought, and RSI reach peak in Week 10 

>>> Monitor and start to sell from 29.5-31$, and buy the dip at 26.5-27$

🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

Week 11: Mar 15 - Mar 21, 2021

- The prediction in Week 9 is almost precise. Price hit the resistance at 29.5, then plunged to the support 27 and up again. 

- However, I did not follow my plan > missed this wave. Hopefully, it will reach the next target 30.8 and down to create another wave.

- There are some factors contributing to the price decline this week:

1. Price hit strong resistance > target price for many traders > they sell off to cut profit

2. WTI Oil price plummetted 10% from 65$ to 59$ within 2 days.

3. US bond interest increase by 8% on Mar 18 > it affects negatively the whole market.

Week 12 Prediction

1. After a huge decline on Thursday, Mar 17, and hit the support at 59$, the WTI price recovered to 61.4$ by Friday, Mar 18. 

> If the Monday candle is green, the WTI price may reach its closest resistance at 63$.

2. The recovery in oil price gives a positive signal to Suncor stock price. After hitting the support at 27$ on Thursday, it slightly increased by 1.7% the next day.

> If the Monday candle is green and the WTI price increase, Suncor will test the resistance 29.5 again. I hope there will be a breakout, and it move to the next target 30.8$

> MA100 just cut above MA200 on Mar 10, which is a good signal for the following months. 

🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

Week 12: Mar 22 - Mar 28, 2021

- Not as expected. Oil dropped from 61.5$ to 57$ on Mar 22, then went sideways for the rest of the week

    > Covid is worse in many countries. 3rd wave is coming > many countries back to lockdown (EU)

        > people expect a delay in the demand recovery > price drop

        > Ever Green ship blocked the Suez Canel. It is a factor that keeps the price at this level.

    > Stochastics is already too low. Hopefully, it will go up next week

- Suncor: 

    > Stock price also decreased on Monday from 27$ to 25.65$ because of the reduction in oil price. Then it was pulled back to the old support 27.17.

    > 1st scenario = Since the Suez Canal was unblocked + COVID cases increased, stock price may continue to drop or go sideways till April 1 (the 15th OPEC meeting).

    > 2nd scenario = Since both oil and stock are at very low Stochastics -> oversold -> we may see a small rebound. If it breaks the resistance 27.17 on Monday, the target price will be 28.5

            > in this case, sell the short-term stocks at 28.5-29.5. then re-buy at 27.5$

    > 1st scenario very likely happen. In this case, sell all short-term stock on Monday, and wait till Wednesday to buy. Long-term stock in TFSA - wait for Thursday to see the trend.